Ohio Senate Primary

Donald Trump typically wouldn’t have a strong incentive to attend a rally in Ohio, a state he previously won comfortably twice in elections, especially eight months ahead of the November election.

However, despite Trump’s endorsement being highly sought-after in the GOP primary, businessman Bernie Moreno is still facing a competitive three-way race. This primary serves as the initial examination of Trump’s influence in a contested Senate race this year.

The victor on Tuesday will go head-to-head with Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown. His re-election, along with another Democrat in a Trump-won state, is pivotal for determining Senate control in the upcoming fall elections.

Democrats are closely monitoring the pivotal Republican primary, evident by an external group airing advertisements favoring Moreno over State Senator Matt Dolan and Secretary of State Frank LaRose. Their substantial spending indicates a preference for Moreno to challenge Brown in a state that has been leaning towards the Republican party. Ohio supported Barack Obama in 2008 and 2012 before shifting towards Trump in the subsequent election.

However, Dolan recently gained support from two influential Ohio Republicans – former Senator Rob Portman and Governor Mike DeWine. Their involvement has emphasized the division within the Ohio GOP between the Trump-aligned faction and the more traditional establishment wing, essentially setting up a showdown between the two self-funded candidates as the race approaches its conclusion.

“On Saturday, Trump took aim at Bernie’s opponent, labeling Matt Dolan as a weak RINO (Republican in Name Only) in a speech that predominantly centered around himself rather than his endorsed Senate candidate. Trump further attempted to link Dolan to Mitt Romney, the Utah senator and 2012 GOP nominee, in an effort to discredit him, while notably ignoring LaRose.”

Ohio GOP Primary: Record Spending and Immigration at Forefront

By Thursday, GOP campaigns and external organizations had collectively invested over $34 million in the primary race. Dolan led the spending with $9.6 million on ads, followed by Moreno with $7.8 million, as reported by AdImpact data. LaRose, a former Green Beret and the sole statewide elected official in the race, lacked comparable personal resources but benefited from substantial outside support.

Unsurprisingly for a GOP primary, even one situated more than 1,000 miles from Mexico, immigration has emerged as a prominent theme in advertising. Candidates and their supporters have either emphasized their commitment to border security or criticized opponents for advocating “amnesty.”

In an ad from the Moreno campaign, Trump is quoted saying, “We love Ohio and we love Bernie Moreno,” featured both in the opening and closing segments. Moreno, a Colombian immigrant who amassed wealth from car dealerships, emphasizes in the ad, “The first thing we have to do is we have to finish the wall.”

Intrigue and Uncertainty

Trump’s endorsement of Moreno came in December, prompted by Sen. J.D. Vance, who himself had received a boost from Trump’s endorsement in Ohio’s 2022 GOP primary. It’s worth noting that Moreno withdrew from that race following Trump’s backing.

However, the recent attack ad from the Club for Growth’s political arm targeting Dolan served as an initial indication of shifting dynamics, as noted by Clegg. This was followed by the unexpected endorsement from DeWine, who had previously indicated reluctance to intervene in the Senate primary.

However, amid the barrage of television ads, it may be the underlying divisions within the party that ultimately shape Tuesday’s primary outcome and influence the dynamics of the fall matchup.

“The significant question looming over all of this,” commented Ohio Republican strategist Bob Clegg, who has no affiliation with any of the campaigns, “is who comprises the undecided category – is it the more aligned-with-Trump segment of the party or those less so?”